Phase II: Program Development.

Overview

In this phase, CalMTA collects data and refines the market transformation initiative (MTI) theory and logic model, confirming market barriers and ensuring the potential MTI has a viable market leverage point and sound program logic. In addition, we develop our cost-effectiveness models, conduct a detailed market characterization, and implement Strategy Pilots. CalMTA coordinates with the Market Transformation Advisory Board (MTAB) throughout Phase II and meets publicly with the MTAB on a regular basis to present interim findings for review and feedback.

Phase II concludes with the development of a full MTI Plan for viable initiatives recommended to move on the Phase III: Market Deployment. An MTI Plan is a roadmap of the MTI that includes all the details necessary to deploy the MTI in the market. The steps in Phase II are depicted in the graphic and further described below.

Phase II stages and activities

Stage 3: Strategy Development

In Stage 3, CalMTA develops a refined logic model to identify key market actors and their roles as well as strategic interventions planned for the idea. Key research during this phase includes:

• Market characterization studies that analyze the target market for the idea, including baseline assumptions, leverage points, market potential, and market progress indicators/metrics.
• Workpapers and/or technology assessment reports, which anticipate future development of the technology and its possible impacts.
• Strategy Pilots that test key research assumptions and potential market intervention strategies of one or more ideas (see Stage 4 below).

CalMTA uses data and research collected to further inform and refine the proposed Market Transformation (MT) theory, intervention strategies, and metrics that will be used to assess incremental impact of each idea. We also develop an Evaluation Plan to determine the methodology for claiming savings produced by the idea and plans to monitor the effectiveness of intervention strategies and the accuracy of the initial program logic model.

By the end of Stage 3, we define a market baseline against which market changes and savings will be measured and evaluated. In addition, we perform a portfolio fit risk assessment, projecting the idea’s savings potential, and the impact of the idea on energy efficiency portfolio goals and existing energy efficiency programs.

Stage 4: Strategy Testing

In Stage 4, CalMTA conducts Strategy Pilot to test proposed strategic interventions associated with the selected ideas. CalMTA will report on outcomes of all Strategy Pilots via a report.

For ideas that can be validated through research, we use the research conducted in Phase II to develop a full MTI Plan that, when approved by the CPUC through an Application or filing that includes opportunities for public comment, would move to Phase III: Market Deployment.